Decision Support System · Tier 3 — Simulated
CEO Business Intervention Simulator
Select a customer persona, choose a behavioral intervention, set a relative lift, and observe what-if scenario impacts on purchases, conversion, and simulated purchase value. All calculations are deterministic expected-value simulations from historical Markov transition probabilities — not causal forecasts.
T3
Tier 3 — Hypothetical Scenario Simulation Engine
Interactive What-If analysis evaluating behavioral interventions over historical Markov transition baselines.
Tier 1: ObservedTier 2: InferredTier 3: Simulated
Step 1 · Target Scope
Select Target Customer Persona
Step 2 · Intervention
Select Business Intervention
Step 3 · Relative Lift
Set Intervention Relative Lift
+10%
0% (Baseline)10% (Default)25% (Max)
Deterministic Redistribution Rule:
Target probability transition mass delta is proportionally subtracted from non-target transitions so that row probability sum strictly conserves ∑ P = 1.0.
Simulation OutputTarget: All Customers
Simulated Scenario Business Impact
Simulated Purchase Value Impact
+$9.57M
| Metric | Historical Baseline | Simulated Scenario | Absolute Delta | Relative Lift |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cart Sessions | 2,845,981 | 2,845,981 | +0 | +0.0% |
| Completed Purchases | 1,158,284 | 1,256,738 | +98,454 | +8.5% |
| Cart Removals | 1,436,612 | 1,436,612 | 0 | 0.0% |
| Session Conversion Rate | 4.16% | 4.52% | +0.36 pp | +8.6% |
| Purchase Value Proxy | $112.60M | $122.17M | +$9.57M | +8.5% |
5x5 Markov State Transition Probability Matrix (all_customers)
Derived EXIT state absorbing boundary| From State | → VIEW | → CART | → REMOVE | → PURCHASE | → EXIT | Row Sum |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIEW | 0.6210 | 0.1842 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.1948 | 1.0000 |
| CART | 0.1920 | 0.1925 | 0.2087 | 0.3399 | 0.0669 | 1.0000 |
| REMOVE | 0.3540 | 0.1020 | 0.0480 | 0.0460 | 0.4500 | 1.0000 |
| PURCHASE | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 1.0000 | 0.0000 | 1.0000 |
| EXIT | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 |
Non-Causal Simulation Disclaimer: Scenario simulations produced by this platform represent what-if calculations based on historical behavioral transition probabilities. They are not causal forecasts, machine-learning predictions, or guaranteed business revenue guarantees.